The Buy Box

Exact steps

1. Ask the client or partner directly for their buy box: target size range, location, price range, and desired lot sizes — do not guess at any of these.
2. Write down four numbers from that conversation: ASP range, lot-count range, acreage range, and target markets.
3. List what local-market advantages you actually have: feel for hyper-local price/condition variance, ability to meet sellers in person, ability to drive by sites, ability to door-knock.
4. For any market you're considering, confirm four things before committing time: builder/developer count, absorption rate, ASP, and available land supply.
5. Weigh ASP against land supply: markets with the highest population growth usually have more land supply too, which pushes ASP down and margins thinner — don't default to the 'top growth' list just because it's popular.
6. Decide local-only vs. virtual: the model works fully virtual (Allied runs nationwide from one Scottsdale office), so geography is a choice, not a hard constraint.

Exact steps

1. Memorize 43,560 — the number of square feet in one acre. Every formula below starts here.
2. Subtract unbuildable acres from gross acres to get net acres.
3. Fixed-lot-size zoning: multiply net acres × 43,560 × 0.7 to get net buildable square feet. The 0.7 accounts for the standard 30% lost to streets, sidewalks, and stormwater infrastructure.
4. Divide net buildable square feet by the minimum lot size in square feet, then round DOWN (FLOOR) — partial lots don't exist.
5. Dwelling-units-per-acre zoning: multiply net acres × 0.7 × allowed dwelling units per net acre, then round DOWN the same way.
6. To get average lot size, divide net buildable square feet by the final lot count.

Exact steps

1. Confirm the property is in the domestic lower-48 states — disqualify immediately if not.
2. Check the market's ASP against the minimum-lot-count table: $450K+ ASP needs 100+ lots, $550K+ needs 75+ lots, $700K+ needs 50+ lots, $1.2M+ needs 25+ lots.
3. Check usable acreage against density type: 5–200 usable acres for low/medium density (single-family detached), or 2.5–100 usable acres for higher density (attached/townhome).
4. Count the top-50 national builders active within a 20-mile radius of the metro (cross-check against builderonline.com's top-100 list) — require at least 3.
5. Confirm the parcel sits within 2 miles of an existing substantially developed area.
6. Run the density calculator with 3 inputs only — gross acres, unbuildable acres, lot size in sq ft — and let net acres, buildable sq ft, and lot yield auto-calculate.
7. Compare the resulting lot yield against the ASP-based minimum-lot-count threshold from step 2 to make the pass/fail call.

Exact steps

1. Measure gross acreage directly in a mapping tool, not by estimate: in this case, 31.86 acres.
2. Measure any wetland or unbuildable crossing in the same mapping tool: in this case, 1.2 acres.
3. Subtract to get net acres: 31.86 − 1.2 = 30.66 net acres.
4. Confirm the zoning designation and minimum lot size from the actual zoning code, not an assumption: in this case, R5 zoning at 5,000 sq ft lots.
5. Multiply 30.66 × 43,560 × 0.7 to get net buildable square feet: 934,885 sq ft.
6. Divide 934,885 by the 5,000 sq ft lot size and round down to get the lot yield: 186 lots.
7. Compare 186 lots against the relevant Allied buy-box threshold — if it passes, submit the deal.

Exact steps

1. Check zoning: is the parcel zoned residential, can it realistically be rezoned, or does the future-land-use map already show single-family residential?
2. Check utilities: look for visible sewer/water stubs from adjacent developments, or visible service lines in an adjacent road.
3. Check access: confirm the parcel touches a public right-of-way directly — flag it if access would require crossing a neighboring parcel.
4. Check topography: scan for tight contour-line clustering on the map, which signals steep slope and likely unusable area.
5. Check overlays: look for floodplain, wetland, or creek overlays that could shrink the developable area to a small corner, or kill the parcel outright.
6. If the parcel clears all 5 checks, call the city or county planner to ask about sewer/water capacity, comprehensive/capital improvement plans, growth projections, and any major incoming employers.

Exact steps

1. Check site size against Allied's target: 20–100 acres and 100–500 lot yield — note that size alone doesn't qualify or disqualify a deal, and 1,000+ lot yields may need to be restructured as a phased deal.
2. Check location: nearby builder activity, utility proximity, school ratings, and road access.
3. Check utilities deep-dive: confirm pipe capacity (diameter, treatment-plant headroom) with the jurisdiction's engineer — a visible pipe does not confirm capacity — and check whether the parcel's low point sits below the sewer line's elevation, which would require a lift station.
4. Check environmental constraints: floodplain, wetland size and location, steep slopes, seasonal-only creek flows, and man-made constraints like transmission lines — subtract all of these from usable acreage.
5. Check road access: confirm road classification (dirt/county/arterial/collector/highway), require at least two access points on higher-yield subdivisions, and check the Transportation System Plan for any arterial that would force separate internal roads.
6. Check zoning: current zoning, future/annexation zoning, rezone feasibility, minimum lot size/max density, and any open-space carve-out percentage to subtract before computing lot yield.
7. Check builder activity (at least 2 sizable builders nearby) and pull comps/absorption within a 3-mile radius, new-construction-only, using active/pending/sold-3-month/sold-12-month data — then calculate lot yield and plug everything into: Property Value = (Lot Yield × Finished Home Value) − Developer Profit Margin − Development Costs.